The population of humans, on earth, has always been dependant on the availability of resources

The population of humans, on earth, has always been dependant on the availability of resources. We are not in equilibrium with the ecosystems and once these resources run out, so will our time on earth. These models try to explain how long we have left, and why this is the case. The main reason that these models are only valuable for explaining the ‘past', and not predicting the ‘future' is that there are to many variables, such as war and famine, that they do not take into account. The models all show a pattern that keeps repeating, in the case of Malthus, the population is limited by ‘food supply'. But this isn't always the case, as explained by Esther Boserup's model, which explains that ‘nature is the mother of invention'. This means that the population increases, and may exceed the food supply, but then inventions and technological advances create ways to accommodate this problem. The ‘Club of Rome' model, which explains Malthusian principles, also takes into consideration resources, such as water. This model illustrates that the population will increase and the amount of resources will decrease. Population will exceed the resources and continue to increase for some time, and then it will decrease very dramatically. Read this Ch. 22 Respiratory System Unfortunately, these models cannot predict extreme circumstances, such as war and famine. These events play a huge part in population growth, as did the events of World War II, after which there was a large ‘baby-boom' and the population of UK increased dramatically. War can also alter population the other way. A country's population could also decrease due to war, by refugees moving out, and also the loss inhabitants in combat. Famine also causes emigration to other, more prosperous countries, but also leads to a decrease in population due to death rates increasing. These type of events are impossible to predict, but still play a huge part in the way population stands against the resources available. The development of LEDCs has also not been taken into account by Malthus' and Club of Rome's models. Boserup, on the other hand, for foresaw these actions, to an extent as she explained that when the population starts overwhelming the natural resources, we find methods to revert the situation (i.e. development). With LEDCs developing populations will stop increasing so dramatically which will release the strain on our resources. With the introduction of contraception to LEDCs, the birth rates are starting to decrease, and this means that there will be less people requiring the valuable resources, such as water. Malthus and Club of Rome also missed the concept of rapid development. For example, the Industrial Revolution in the 17th and 18th century, had a huge impact on the amount of resources available, which is yet another example of Boserup's theory being closer to the truth than the others'. The UK had problems with the amount of resources at their disposal so they found a way to obtain more in the form of technical advances and inventions. This was not the only revolution that disrupted the theories of Malthus and Club of Rome, though. The agricultural revolution in 1798, created a surplus of food available to the population and therefore, the resources was not limited to the countries inhabitants, another example of Boserup's theory. The introduction of renewable energy, such as HEP, has also thrown Malthus' model, as well as Club of Rome's because it has created a resource that will not run out. This is another indicator that Boserup had the right idea that humans will think of a solution every time that resource-levels become low. All in all, both Malthus' and Club of Rome's models were much better at explaining the past than predicting the future as they do not take into account so many variables. Boserup's model, although not perfect, is a more accurate prediction of what is yet to come, as her theory that ‘nature is the mother of invention', is true, to some extent, when humans are concerned. Her model takes into account the fact that people change when their lives are under too much pressure. LEDCs are starting to develop due to the realization that if they don't, they will have serious problems.